CoinTalk

In the early days of Bitcoin, the only thing that mattered was the block reward halving. Today, the crypto market marches to the beat of a different drum: The Federal Reserve.

Macroeconomics has invaded crypto. When the Fed Chair (currently Jerome Powell) walks up to the podium, billions of dollars in market cap can vanish or appear in seconds. For a crypto trader, ignoring these announcements is like sailing into a hurricane without checking the weather forecast.

Understanding how to trade these events—specifically the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings—is a critical skill for navigating modern markets.

Why Interest Rates Move Bitcoin

The logic is simple. Bitcoin and risk assets (like tech stocks) thrive on "cheap money."

• Low Interest Rates (Dovish): Borrowing money is cheap. Investors take risks to find yield. Capital flows into crypto.
• High Interest Rates (Hawkish): Borrowing is expensive. Investors prefer safe returns like Treasury bonds. Capital flows out of crypto.

Therefore, every FOMC meeting revolves around one question: Will rates go up, down, or stay the same?

The Three Phases of the Trade

Trading these events isn't just about the moment the number is released. It is a three-act play.

1. The Anticipation (Buy the Rumor)

In the weeks leading up to the announcement, the market "prices in" the expectation. If traders expect a rate cut, Bitcoin often rallies before the meeting. You can track this sentiment using the CME FedWatch Tool. Smart traders often position themselves on the Spot market early, looking to sell into the volatility.

2. The Announcement (The Knee-Jerk)

At exactly 2:00 PM ET, the decision is released. Algorithmic bots react instantly.

• The Fake-Out: Often, the initial candle is a fake-out. The price might spike up violently, trapping longs, only to crash seconds later.
• Strategy: Do not trade the first minute. The spreads are wide, and the slippage is high. Wait for the dust to settle.

3. The Press Conference (The Real Move)

30 minutes later, the Fed Chair speaks. This is where the real trend is established. The market listens to the tone. Even if the rate decision was bad, if the Chair sounds optimistic about the future (dovish), the market can rally.

Signals to Watch

You don't need a PhD in economics to trade this. Watch the DXY (US Dollar Index).

• If the Fed is Hawkish, the Dollar strengthens (DXY goes up), and Bitcoin usually drops.
• If the Fed is Dovish, the Dollar weakens (DXY goes down), and Bitcoin usually flies.

Managing the Risk

Volatility during these events can be extreme. It is not uncommon to see Bitcoin move $2,000 in a 5-minute candle.

If you are not comfortable managing this risk manually, consider staying in stablecoins or using Copy Trading. By copying professional traders who specialize in macro events, you can leverage their experience without staring at the charts yourself.

Conclusion

The days of crypto being decoupled from the traditional economy are over. Interest rates are the gravity of the financial world. By learning to read the Fed's signals, you stop gambling on random price movements and start trading the fundamental flows of global capital.

Zcash Developers Exit Electric Coin Company in Major Governance Rift, Prepare to Launch New Independent Firm

The team responsible for developing one of the crypto industry’s most well-known privacy-focused blockchains has officially parted ways with its long-time organizational home. Developers behind Zcash have left the Electric Coin Company, signaling a dramatic internal rupture that underscores ongoing tensions around governance, decentralization, and control within open-source crypto projects.

Trump Family’s World Liberty Financial Seeks Banking Charter to Expand USD1 Stablecoin

The Trump family is stepping deeper into the world of crypto and traditional finance. World Liberty Financial, the family’s ambitious crypto platform, has applied for a national trust banking charter in the United States. This move is designed to strengthen the institutional adoption of its USD1 stablecoin and give the platform greater control over its operations.

Unlike many crypto projects that rely on third-party providers, World Liberty plans to handle issuance, custody, and conversion of USD1 internally, creating a fully integrated ecosystem under a regulated financial entity.

A Strategic Move Toward Institutional Adoption

World Liberty’s subsidiary, WLTC Holdings, submitted its application to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on Wednesday. The charter would allow World Liberty to operate as a trust bank, offering fee-free minting and redemption of USD1, smooth conversions between US dollars and USD1, and custody services for other stablecoins.

CEO Zach Witkoff highlighted the growing interest from institutional clients. “Institutions are already using USD1 for cross-border payments, settlements, and treasury operations,  he said.  With a national trust charter, we can bring issuance, custody, and conversion together as a full-stack solution under one highly regulated entity.

This approach positions World Liberty as a major player in the intersection of crypto and traditional finance, providing services that rival conventional banks while leveraging blockchain technology.

OCC’s Growing Support for Crypto Banking

Fireblocks Expands Its Institutional Reach with $130M Acquisition of TRES

Crypto Industry Mobilizes in Washington Ahead of Pivotal Market Structure Vote

A Critical Week for US Crypto Regulation

Washington, D.C. is becoming the center of attention for the global cryptocurrency industry as senior executives, legal experts, and blockchain innovators arrive in the U.S. capital for a decisive week. With lawmakers preparing to advance landmark legislation on digital asset market structure, industry representatives are making a coordinated push to shape the future of crypto regulation in the United States.

The timing is no coincidence. Senate committees are approaching a key phase in the legislative process, known as a markup, where the text of the bill is debated, amended, and prepared for a formal vote. For many in the crypto sector, this moment could define how digital assets are regulated for years to come.

The Responsible Financial Innovation Act Gains Momentum

At the center of discussions is the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, a comprehensive proposal designed to establish a clear and unified framework for regulating cryptocurrencies, blockchain networks, and related financial services. The bill aims to resolve long-standing uncertainty over how digital assets should be classified and which federal agencies should oversee them.

Multiple Senate committees are expected to review their respective versions of the legislation simultaneously, signaling growing urgency within Congress to move forward. Senate leadership has indicated that a vote on market structure provisions could take place in mid-January, accelerating what has traditionally been a slow and cautious process.

Industry Leaders Step In to Educate Lawmakers

In advance of these deliberations, a major blockchain advocacy organization is organizing direct engagement between lawmakers and more than 50 companies operating across the digital asset ecosystem. These meetings are intended to provide practical insights into how the industry functions, highlight regulatory gaps, and explain why existing financial laws are ill-suited for decentralized technologies.

Executives participating in the discussions represent a broad spectrum of the crypto economy, including centralized exchanges, token development teams, traditional financial institutions, mining operations, blockchain infrastructure providers, and decentralized finance platforms. By presenting a unified yet diverse industry voice, organizers hope to demonstrate that market structure reform is not a niche issue, but a systemic necessity.

Shifting the Balance Between US Regulators

One of the most closely watched aspects of the legislation is its potential to redefine regulatory authority. Early drafts suggest a significant expansion of the role of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in overseeing digital assets, particularly those considered commodities rather than securities.

This shift would mark a departure from the current regulatory environment, where enforcement actions have often served as the primary tool for oversight. Many industry participants argue that clearer statutory authority would reduce legal uncertainty, encourage responsible innovation, and prevent regulatory overreach.

Political Timing and the Shadow of the 2026 Elections

Despite growing optimism around the bill’s progress, political realities continue to cast a shadow over the process. Analysts have warned that the window for passing comprehensive crypto legislation may be narrower than it appears. The approaching 2026 midterm elections could reshape congressional priorities, especially if control of the Senate changes hands.

As election campaigns intensify, bipartisan cooperation often becomes more difficult, increasing the risk that controversial or complex legislation stalls. Some lawmakers have openly acknowledged that delaying action could push the bill into a far more uncertain political environment.

Why Lawmakers Feel Pressure to Act Now

Several senators have publicly emphasized the importance of acting early in the year, before election dynamics dominate the legislative agenda. According to these lawmakers, the current period represents a rare opportunity where cross-party dialogue is still possible and momentum remains intact.

Supporters of the bill point to recent progress in negotiations, noting that collaboration has continued even through the holiday season. This sustained engagement has fueled confidence that a compromise framework could be finalized sooner rather than later.

Government Funding Risks Could Cause New Delays

Beyond elections, another potential obstacle looms: government funding. Previous efforts to advance crypto legislation were disrupted after Congress failed to reach a budget agreement, triggering a prolonged government shutdown that halted much of the legislative process.

Although a temporary funding deal is currently in place, it expires at the end of January. Renewed budget disputes could once again divert attention away from crypto policy, delaying committee work and floor votes at a critical moment.

A Defining Moment for the US Crypto Landscape

For the digital asset industry, the stakes could not be higher. Clear market structure rules could provide long-awaited legal certainty, attract institutional capital, and reinforce the United States’ role as a global leader in financial innovation. Failure to act, however, may push talent and investment toward jurisdictions with more defined regulatory frameworks.

As executives meet with senators and committees prepare for decisive votes, the coming weeks may determine whether the U.S. finally establishes a coherent approach to digital assets—or allows regulatory ambiguity to persist for years to come.

Solana’s Stablecoin Market Surges by $900M in 24 Hours, Signaling a New Phase of Onchain Finance

The approval of Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the United States marked the end of the "wild west" era of crypto. For the first time, Wall Street investors could gain exposure to digital assets using the same brokerage accounts they use to buy Apple stock or gold.

But for the average investor, the choice between a Bitcoin ETF and an Ethereum ETF isn't just about picking a ticker symbol. It represents a choice between two completely different asset classes.

While they are often grouped together as "crypto," Bitcoin and Ethereum serve fundamentally different roles in a portfolio. Understanding these nuances is key to deciding where to allocate your capital.

Bitcoin ETFs: The Digital Gold Play

Bitcoin is widely regarded as "sound money." Its value proposition relies on scarcity. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin.

Investing in a Bitcoin ETF is similar to investing in a Gold ETF. You aren't looking for dividends or cash flow; you are looking for a Store of Value.

• The Thesis: Investors buy Bitcoin ETFs as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement.
• The Volatility: While still volatile compared to stocks, Bitcoin is historically less volatile than Ethereum. It is the "safe haven" asset of the crypto world.
• Target Audience: Conservative investors looking to protect purchasing power over the long term.

Ethereum ETFs: The Technology Play

If Bitcoin is digital gold, Ethereum is digital oil. It is the fuel that powers the world's largest decentralized computer.

Investing in an Ethereum ETF is more akin to investing in a high-growth tech stock (like Nvidia or Google) than a commodity.

• The Thesis: You are betting on the growth of the Web3 ecosystem—DeFi, NFTs, Stablecoins, and Tokenization. As more applications are built on Ethereum, the demand for ETH to pay for transaction fees increases.
• The Volatility: Ethereum typically has a higher "beta" than Bitcoin. In a bull market, it often outperforms Bitcoin, but in a bear market, it tends to draw down harder.

The Missing Piece: The Staking Dilemma

There is one massive difference that specific to the current ETF structure: Staking Rewards.

If you buy Ethereum on a Spot exchange like BYDFi and stake it, you can earn a yield (denominated in ETH) essentially for free. However, due to regulatory complexities, current US Spot Ethereum ETFs do not pass these staking rewards on to investors.

This creates a distinct disadvantage for the ETF product. By holding the ETF instead of the real asset, you are effectively paying a management fee and missing out on ~3-4% annual yield. For Bitcoin, which is Proof-of-Work and has no yield, this opportunity cost does not exist.

Correlation and Diversification

Historically, Bitcoin and Ethereum are highly correlated; they tend to move in the same direction. However, the magnitude differs.

Many portfolio managers suggest a weighted approach. A common "crypto-native" split might be 70% Bitcoin (for stability) and 30% Ethereum (for growth potential).

It is also worth noting that while ETFs are convenient, they trade only during market hours (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET). Crypto markets never sleep. If a major news event breaks on a Sunday, ETF holders are stuck until Monday morning, while traders on dedicated crypto exchanges can react instantly.

Conclusion

Bitcoin ETFs offer a pristine, simple bet on monetary scarcity. Ethereum ETFs offer a bet on the future of the internet, albeit with the drawback of missing yield.

If you look at a basic price chart, you usually see two things: the price candles and the volume bars at the bottom. Most traders stop there. They look at the price to see where the asset is, and the volume to see how many people traded it.

But in the world of crypto derivatives (Futures and Perpetuals), there is a third metric that is arguably more important than volume: Open Interest (OI).

While volume tells you what has happened, Open Interest gives you a clue about what might happen next. It is the measure of potential energy in the market, waiting to be released.

The Core Difference Defined

To trade derivatives effectively, you must distinguish between these two concepts.

1. Trading Volume (The History)
Volume counts the total number of contracts traded during a specific period. If Alice buys 1 BTC contract and Bob sells 1 BTC contract, the volume is 1. Once the trade is finished, the volume is recorded and "gone." It represents realized activity.

2. Open Interest (The Potential)
Open Interest counts the total number of active contracts that are arguably still "open" in the market. It represents money that is currently in the game and has not yet been settled.

• If Alice opens a Long position and keeps it open overnight, OI increases.
• If Alice closes her position, OI decreases.

How to Combine Them for Signals

The magic happens when you analyze Price, Volume, and Open Interest together. This triad reveals the true intent of the market.

Scenario A: Price Rising + OI Rising (Bullish)
If the price is going up and Open Interest is also increasing, it means new money is entering the market to support the trend. Traders are opening fresh Long positions. This confirms a strong, healthy bull trend.

Scenario B: Price Rising + OI Falling (Weakness)
If the price is going up but Open Interest is dropping, be careful. This usually means the price rally is being driven by "Short Covering" (bears buying back to close their losing trades) rather than bulls buying to open new ones. This trend is weak and likely to reverse.

Scenario C: Price Falling + OI Rising (Bearish)
If the price is crashing but Open Interest is skyrocketing, it indicates that traders are aggressively opening new Short positions. They are betting heavily that the price will go lower. This confirms a strong bear trend.

The Danger Zone: High OI and Volatility

When Open Interest reaches historic highs, it acts like a powder keg. It means there is a massive amount of leverage in the system.

In this environment, a small price movement can trigger a Liquidation Cascade.

• Long Squeeze: If the price drops slightly, over-leveraged Longs are forced to sell. This selling drives the price down further, liquidating more Longs, creating a domino effect.
• Short Squeeze: Conversely, if the price pumps, Shorts are forced to buy, sending the price vertical.

Smart traders watch for spikes in OI to anticipate these violent moves before they happen.

Conclusion

Trading Volume shows you the intensity of the current battle. Open Interest shows you how many soldiers are still left on the battlefield.

In the cryptocurrency market, "volume" is the most cited metric after price. When Bitcoin rallies, analysts immediately ask, "Was there volume behind the move?"

But in crypto, the word "volume" can refer to two completely different things. Unlike the stock market, where all trades settle through a central clearinghouse, crypto activity is split between centralized exchanges and the blockchain itself.

To truly understand market sentiment, you must distinguish between Trading Volume and On-Chain Volume. Confusing the two can lead to a disastrous misreading of the market.

What is Trading Volume? (The Speculative Engine)

Trading volume (or Exchange Volume) refers to the total amount of an asset bought and sold on exchanges like BYDFi.

Crucially, the vast majority of this activity happens off-chain. When you buy Bitcoin on a centralized exchange Spot market, no transaction occurs on the Bitcoin blockchain. Instead, the exchange simply updates its internal database, debiting the seller and crediting the buyer.

• What it measures: Speculation, liquidity, and short-term interest.
• The Pro: It is fast and cheap.
• The Con: It can be manipulated. "Wash trading" (where a trader buys and sells to themselves to inflate numbers) is easier to hide in exchange volume figures than on the blockchain.

What is On-Chain Volume? (The Truth Layer)

On-chain volume refers to transactions that are validated and recorded on the blockchain ledger. This happens when a user withdraws funds from an exchange to a cold wallet, pays for a service, or interacts with a DeFi protocol.

Because every transaction incurs a network fee (gas), on-chain volume is rarely fake. It costs too much money to spam the network with high-value transactions just to create an illusion.

• What it measures: Economic utility, adoption, and "Whale" movements.
• The Signal: If price is dropping, but on-chain volume is spiking, it might indicate that big players are accumulating assets and moving them to cold storage (a bullish signal), rather than selling them.

The NVT Ratio: Valuing the Network

Sophisticated traders combine price and on-chain volume to determine if a coin is overvalued. This is known as the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio.

Think of it as the P/E (Price to Earnings) ratio of crypto.

• High NVT: The network value (Market Cap) is high, but the on-chain volume is low. This suggests the price is driven purely by speculation (bubble territory).
• Low NVT: The market cap is low relative to the massive amount of value moving through the network. This suggests the asset is undervalued.

Why You Need Both

Relying on just one metric gives you a blind spot.

• If you only look at Trading Volume, you might be fooled by a wash-trading bot on a low-cap altcoin.
• If you only look at On-Chain Volume, you will miss the massive price-moving events that happen on derivatives exchanges, where billions of dollars in volume can liquidate positions without a single satoshi moving on-chain.

Conclusion

To act like a professional analyst, you need to synthesize both data points. Use Trading Volume to gauge short-term price action and liquidity. Use On-Chain Volume to confirm the long-term health and adoption of the network.

When the two align—high speculation matched by high utility—that is when the sustainable bull runs happen.

In the modern financial world, we have been conditioned to expect everything for free. Trading apps advertise "Zero Commission" and "No Fees," leading millions of retail investors to believe they are getting a great deal.

But the old adage remains true: If the product is free, you are the product.

The mechanism that makes zero-fee trading possible is called Payment for Order Flow (PFOF). While it started in the stock market (popularized by apps like Robinhood), it has quietly seeped into the cryptocurrency industry. Understanding PFOF is essential to realizing that your "free" trade might actually be costing you money.

How PFOF Actually Works

PFOF is essentially a kickback system.

When you click "Buy" on a brokerage app that uses PFOF, your order does not go directly to a public exchange (like the NYSE or a transparent crypto order book). Instead, the broker routes your order to a third-party wholesaler known as a Market Maker.

Why? Because the Market Maker pays the broker for the privilege of executing your trade.

1. The User: Places a buy order for 1 BTC.
2. The Broker: Sells that order to a Market Maker for a fee.
3. The Market Maker: Executes the trade, often making a profit on the spread (the difference between the buy and sell price).

The Conflict of Interest

The controversy around PFOF stems from a massive conflict of interest. Your broker is legally supposed to give you the "Best Execution" (the best possible price). However, they are financially incentivized to route your order to the Market Maker who pays them the highest rebate, not necessarily the one who gives you the best price.

In the crypto world, this often manifests as wider spreads.

• Scenario A (Transparent Exchange): You buy Bitcoin at $90,000. You pay a small transparent fee.
• Scenario B (PFOF Broker): You pay "zero fees," but the price of Bitcoin is quoted at $90,100.

That extra $100 is the hidden cost. You didn't pay a commission, but you received a worse entry price. Over time, these hidden costs can bleed a portfolio dry, far exceeding what a standard commission would have cost.

PFOF in Crypto: A Regulatory Wild West

In traditional finance (equities), PFOF is heavily regulated by the SEC and is actually banned in major jurisdictions like the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia due to ethical concerns.

In crypto, however, regulations are still catching up. Many "zero-fee" crypto exchanges or brokerage apps rely entirely on PFOF revenue models. They obscure the real market price to skim profits from unsuspecting retail traders.

The Solution: Direct Market Access

For traders who care about precision, the alternative is trading on platforms that offer direct access to the order book. When you trade on a professional Spot market, you are interacting directly with other buyers and sellers. The exchange charges a transparent fee, but in return, you get the true market price and immediate execution transparency.

Real trading isn't about hiding costs; it's about optimizing execution. Whether you are scalping small moves or investing for the long haul, knowing the true price of the asset is non-negotiable.

Conclusion

PFOF is the invisible tax on retail traders. While "zero fees" sound attractive on a marketing banner, savvy investors know that paying a small, transparent fee for proper execution is often the cheaper option in the long run.