XRP Repeats a Warning Signal That Once Led to a 68% Drop

XRP Warns of a Major Breakdown as Historical Signals Resurface

XRP is once again at a critical crossroads. A combination of onchain data, weakening technical structure, and fresh ETF outflows is flashing a warning signal that traders have seen before — and it did not end well the last time it appeared. According to recent market intelligence, XRP’s current setup closely resembles the conditions that preceded a dramatic 68% price collapse in 2022, raising serious concerns about what may come next.

As XRP struggles to defend key psychological levels, investors are asking a pressing question: will bulls step in this time, or is history about to repeat itself?

A Familiar Onchain Pattern That Traders Fear

Recent data from Glassnode suggests that XRP’s onchain market structure is entering a dangerous phase. The current distribution of holders mirrors a setup observed in early 2022, a period that ultimately led to months of sustained downside.

At the heart of this warning is XRP’s cost-basis behavior. Short-term investors who entered the market within the last week to month are accumulating XRP below the cost basis of mid-term holders who bought between six and twelve months ago. This imbalance creates a fragile environment where newer buyers remain relatively comfortable, while mid-term holders are trapped in losing positions.

Over time, this gap builds psychological pressure. Investors who are underwater become increasingly likely to sell into any price rebound, creating persistent overhead resistance that prevents sustained upside momentum.

Lessons From 2022: Why This Signal Matters

The last time XRP displayed this exact onchain structure was in February 2022, when the token traded near $0.78. What followed was a slow but relentless decline that erased nearly 68% of its value, pushing XRP down to around $0.30 by mid-year.

Market analysts now warn that if XRP fails to reclaim critical support zones, a similar scenario could unfold. While the market environment today is different, investor behavior often repeats under pressure — especially when fear and uncertainty begin to dominate.

If current support levels weaken, projections suggest XRP could slide toward the $1.40 region, with deeper downside possible if selling accelerates.

Why the $2 Level Has Become a Psychological Battlefield

The $2 price level has emerged as one of the most important zones for XRP in recent months. Each attempt to reclaim this level since early 2025 has triggered massive realized losses, often ranging between $500 million and $1.2 billion on a weekly basis. This pattern reveals a clear behavioral trend: many holders are using rallies toward $2 as an opportunity to exit their positions.

As long as XRP remains below this threshold, selling pressure is likely to persist. The longer the price struggles under $2, the more confidence bears gain, and the more hesitant bulls become.

Historical price action reinforces this concern. In previous cycles, XRP repeatedly weakened key support levels through multiple retests before eventually breaking down. Once those levels failed, the decline accelerated rapidly.

Technical Structure Points to Deeper Risk

From a technical perspective, XRP’s recent move below its 50-day simple moving average signals a shift in momentum. This breakdown suggests that bears are regaining control, opening the door for a potential move toward lower support zones around $1.25 or even closer to the 200-week moving average near $1.03.

In 2022, XRP followed a nearly identical trajectory. After losing a long-held support level, price cascaded downward until it found temporary relief near its long-term moving average. Traders now fear that the current structure may be setting up for the same outcome if buyers fail to act decisively.

ETF Outflows Add to the Bearish Narrative

Adding further pressure to XRP’s outlook is the behavior of spot XRP exchange-traded funds. Recently, XRP ETFs recorded their second-ever day of net outflows since launch, with more than $53 million exiting the market in a single session. This marked the largest outflow event so far, surpassing the previous record set earlier in the year.

ETF flows often serve as a proxy for institutional sentiment. When capital begins to leave these products, it suggests that larger players are growing cautious or reducing exposure, which can amplify downside volatility in the broader market.

Navigating XRP Volatility With Smarter Tools

In times of heightened uncertainty, risk management becomes more important than ever. Many traders are turning to advanced platforms like BYDFi, which offers professional trading tools, deep liquidity, and flexible risk-control features tailored for volatile crypto markets.

BYDFi allows traders to monitor price action across multiple timeframes, manage leverage carefully, and react quickly to market shifts. For those navigating XRP’s current turbulence, having access to a reliable and fast trading environment can make a meaningful difference.

Whether traders are hedging downside risk or positioning for a potential rebound, platforms like BYDFi provide the infrastructure needed to adapt to rapidly changing conditions.

Final Thoughts: Will History Repeat or Will Bulls Defend?

XRP is approaching a decisive moment. The convergence of bearish onchain signals, weakening technical structure, and ETF outflows paints a cautious picture. While history does not always repeat perfectly, it often rhymes — and the similarities to 2022 are difficult to ignore.

If bulls manage to reclaim and hold the $2 level, confidence could return and invalidate the bearish scenario. However, failure to do so may invite a deeper correction, testing the resolve of long-term holders once again.

For now, all eyes remain on XRP’s key support zones, as the market waits to see whether this warning signal becomes just another false alarm — or the beginning of a much larger move.

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