Solana falls below $130 as onchain data hints at a potential rebound

Solana Slides Under $130 — But Onchain Signals Suggest the Sell-Off May Be Temporary

Solana’s price briefly slipped below the psychologically important $130 level on Jan. 21, marking its lowest point since early January. At first glance, the move appeared to confirm growing bearish pressure across the broader crypto market. However, a deeper look beneath the surface tells a very different story.

Despite the short-term price weakness, onchain data reveals that Solana’s fundamentals are quietly strengthening. From whale accumulation to shrinking exchange balances and a revival in network activity, several indicators suggest that SOL’s recent dip may be less of a breakdown and more of a strategic pause before a potential recovery.

Whales Treat the Dip as an Opportunity, Not a Warning

Large Solana holders have responded to the price pullback with renewed confidence rather than panic. Onchain data from Glassnode shows a steady rise in accumulation among addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 SOL since late November 2025. These wallets now collectively control roughly 48 million SOL, accounting for about 9% of the circulating supply.

Even more telling is the behavior of the largest holders. Addresses with balances exceeding 100,000 SOL have increased their holdings significantly since mid-November, now controlling approximately 362 million tokens. This represents nearly two-thirds of the total circulating supply and reflects a clear vote of confidence from long-term, high-capital participants.

Historically, this kind of accumulation during periods of price weakness has often preceded strong upside moves, particularly when driven by wallets that tend to operate on longer time horizons rather than short-term speculation.

Long-Term Holders Are Back in Accumulation Mode

Beyond whale wallets, long-term holders appear to be re-entering accumulation territory as well. The long-term holder net position change metric has remained firmly positive since the final week of December 2025, reaching a 15-month high of nearly 3.9 million SOL.

This shift suggests that investors who typically hold through market cycles are once again adding to their positions in anticipation of higher prices ahead. The last comparable surge in long-term accumulation occurred in October 2024, shortly before Solana staged a powerful rally that pushed prices nearly 100% higher over the following months.

While history never guarantees repetition, the similarity in onchain behavior is difficult to ignore.

Exchange Balances Hit Two-Year Lows, Easing Sell Pressure

Another critical piece of the puzzle lies in Solana’s exchange supply. Data from Glassnode indicates that the amount of SOL held on centralized exchanges has fallen sharply since late November. Exchange balances recently dropped to around 26 million SOL, levels last seen in early 2023.

When tokens move off exchanges, it generally signals a reduced intention to sell. Investors typically withdraw assets to cold storage or staking when they expect higher prices or plan to hold for longer periods. As a result, declining exchange balances often correlate with reduced sell-side pressure and improved conditions for price recovery.

In Solana’s case, the steady drawdown in exchange reserves adds weight to the argument that the current dip may be driven more by short-term market sentiment than by structural weakness.

Network Activity Reawakens After Months of Decline

Perhaps the strongest confirmation of Solana’s resilience comes from its rapidly improving network activity. Onchain metrics tracked by Nansen show that daily active addresses have surged by more than 50% over the past week, climbing to over five million — the highest level seen in six months.

Transaction activity has also rebounded sharply. Average daily transactions rose by roughly 20% during the same period, reaching nearly 78 million, a level not seen since mid-2025. This recovery highlights Solana’s continued appeal for decentralized applications, DeFi activity, and high-throughput use cases that rely on low fees and fast settlement.

Rising user engagement typically translates into stronger onchain demand for SOL, both for transaction fees and staking, reinforcing the network’s economic foundation.

Stablecoin Liquidity Surges to Record Levels

Adding another layer to the bullish onchain narrative is the explosive growth in Solana’s stablecoin supply. According to Token Terminal, the total stablecoin value on the network has climbed more than 15% in just one week, reaching an all-time high of approximately $15 billion.

This influx of stablecoins represents fresh liquidity entering the Solana ecosystem. More capital onchain means greater capacity for trading, lending, DeFi protocols, and application-level activity. Analysts have noted that rising stablecoin supply often precedes periods of heightened market activity, as capital positions itself in anticipation of future opportunities.

In practical terms, growing stablecoin balances enhance network utility, increase fee generation, and support broader adoption — all factors that tend to strengthen a blockchain’s native asset over time.

Price Weakness vs. Fundamental Strength

While SOL’s drop below $130 may have rattled short-term traders, the underlying data paints a far more constructive picture. Whale accumulation, long-term holder confidence, shrinking exchange supply, renewed network usage, and record-breaking stablecoin inflows all point to strengthening fundamentals rather than deterioration.

If these trends persist, Solana could be positioning itself for a meaningful rebound once broader market conditions stabilize. For now, the onchain signals suggest that the recent pullback may be less about loss of confidence and more about consolidation before the next decisive move.

In the evolving crypto market, price tells only part of the story — and Solana’s onchain data is quietly telling investors to keep watching closely.

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